During the last year, there has been considerable discussion about the December 22, 1997, massacre on both national and international levels. Acteal, in the county of Chenalho, an unknown village that did not even appear on the maps of Chiapas, is now a word well-known by millions of people in the world. Although the massacre is an extreme case of violence, more and more frequently in the last few weeks the situations seems at the point of further outbreaks of recurrent violence in various zones.

In many ways, the situation in the indigenous communities of Chiapas has deteriorated in the last year. The most flagrant increase in the militarization is the county of Chenalho, with the arrival of 2,000 troops after the massacre. Still today there is a presence of military camps in some tens of communities, mainly in the region of Acteal and the autonomous county seat of Polho, and it is calculated that there is one soldier per family in this region.

Many analysts think that as a consequence of the massacre the changes in the federal government, replacements such as the Secretary of State Francisco Labastida Ochoa and the coordinator for the dialogue Emilio Rabasa Gamboa, as well as the governor of Chiapas, Roberto Albores Guillen, represent a hardening rather than an improvement of the official policy regarding Chiapas.

Paradoxically, the initiatives of the state government to pacify the state seem to have generated more tensions. For example, in the spring, the governor reestablished the “rule of law” by dismantling four autonomous Zapatista counties in police-military operations in each of which participated more than a thousand elements of the armed forces. In these operations dozens of Zapatista simpathizers were detained, and in the case of El Bosque there was a violent confrontation between Zapatista simpathizers and police and army members, a result of which were the deaths of eight Zapatistas and two policemen. After these operations the presence of the armed forces was reinforced in these places, and hostility against the Zapatista support bases intensified.

The implementation of the state plan for “remunicipalization” announced in July also has generated many conflicts in the zone, due to the fact that new centers of government and power will be determined. In addition, the local elections of October were characterized by widespread abstentions and a broad victory for the PRI that won in the entire conflict zone. The opposition parties denounced irregularities all over Chiapas and disputed the results in dozens of counties. Due to the little consideration that the denouncements received, the opposition declared that they would organize mobilizations and occupation of municipal buildings before January 1 when the new legislations will begin their work. Concurrently, violent incidents, threats and killings in the communities have increased, like for example in Las Margaritas, El Bosque, Nicolas Ruiz and Tumbala.

In various locations, increased activity of paramilitary groups has been reported. The Attorney General of the Republic is investigating 16 “armed civilian groups”. A week before the first anniversary of the massacre in Acteal, Chiapas Governor Roberto Albores Guillen presented a bill in the state congress titled “Amnesty for the Disarmament of Civil Groups in the State of Chiapas”. This bill proposes amnesty to armed groups, extinguishing all penal action for possession, bearing and stockholding of fire arms and explosives. Furthermore it includes the possibility to offer work in exchange for the turning in of arms. For some analysts this bill could in fact be carried out with the intention to offer impunity for the murders and violent acts committed by paramilitary groups. The federal government appears to be interested in the COCOPA assuming the role of the mediation and not the role of support which it has. For their part, the EZLN was quite clear in reminding the COCOPA of its actual role according to th law, and moreover solicited from the COCOPA the creation of a new mediation body.

Another preoccupying aspect in the stagnating peace process is the disappearance of the mediation between EZLN and the federal government. The self-dissolution of the CONAI (National Intermediation Commission between the federal government and EZLN) last June was presented by its president Bishop Samuel Ruiz as a denouncement of the permanent aggression by the government against the mediation body and the Diocese of San Cristobal. It is still to be seen if the COCOPA will play a future role in the mediation.

At the same time, another actor with increasing importance, the civil society, made promises in November to support the national consultation proposed by the EZLN about the implementation of the San Andres Accords. The consultation is expected for March 21, 1999, and the EZLN hopes with this consultation to mobilize civil society and in this way civil society will convert itself into a lancing-point to change government policy regarding indigenous people. However, while the government continues to not fulfill the conditions of the EZLN for resuming dialogue — such as the implementation of the San Andres Accords, an end to militarization and the liberation of the Zapatista political prisoners — any incident could convert itself in a drama with bloody consequences.

The international community also continues to be attentive to the situation in Chiapas. On December 11 of this year, the president of the Working Group on Indigenous People of the United Nations Organization (UN), Erica Irene A. Daes, expressed her concern about “the violations and the situation on human rights in the indigenous communities in Mexico, especially in Chiapas”. She expressed her opinion that the government must comply with the San Andres Accords. Daes” statement coincides in general with the point of view of other international non-governmental organizations (NGO) and the Subcommission on the Prevention of Discrimination and the Protection of Minorities of the Human Rights Commission of the UN earlier in the same month. In this framework, it is preoccupying that during the past year there has been an intensive campaign against the presence of foreigners who act as international human rights observers in Chiapas.